July saw potentially major news about organized crime in Mexico. One of the most powerful but also reclusive crime bosses, Ismael “El Mayo” Zambada was arrested in the United States, along with Joaquín Guzmán López, also an important figure but better known as the son of the infamous Joaquín “El Chapo” Guzmán Loera. Zambada and Guzmán flew into Texas on a private plane, where they were promptly apprehended by US security agents. How and why Zambada ended up in Texas was unclear, particularly because US officials and agencies seemed unable to agree on a story.
I spoke to SBS Australia about what happened and what it could mean for Mexico. I also wrote a quick response for Latin America Advisor, which I’ll reproduce below.
My comments were partly inspired by an essay by Cristina Rivera Garza in Grieving: Dispatches from a Wounded Country, where she talks about Zambada’s only real public appearance and what is says about Mexico’s war on narcotrafficking.
Less than a month after Zambada’s arrest, another important event received far less press coverage. Another major figure in organized crime, Osiel Cárdenas, completed his 21 year sentence and was released from prison in the United States. He’ll almost certainly be returned to Mexico to face further charges. He was able to exercise leadership from behind bars in Mexico before, so it remains to be seen what his return could mean.
My comments to Latin America Advisor:
This is a blow to the Sinaloa Cartel in terms of its status rather than in an operational sense. The so-called cartel is a broad federation of criminal factions, decentralized but resilient enough to tolerate a level of conflict among these factions, while continuing to traffic large quantities of illicit drugs. Zambada has long planned for his death or arrest, so whether or not he knew much about this arrest, contingencies were already in place. The arrest will have no impact on the flow of fentanyl into the United States – despite US authorities talking up Zambada’s alleged involvement in fentanyl production and trafficking. However, the arrest could be a blow to the cartel’s standing. In addition to being one of the oldest and most powerful criminal organizations in Mexico, the Sinaloa Cartel cultivates an image of being more traditional and honorable than other upstart cartels. In a rare interview, Zambada described himself as a family patriarch, a farmer, a man of the mountains. With his capture, that old school generation is largely out of the picture. The newer leaders, like the sons of “Chapo” Guzmán, do not have the same standing within or beyond the federation. They are already more likely to act like the other upstart cartels, and that is without the dark suspicion that the Guzmáns betrayed Zambada.
In terms of security collaboration, US authorities seem unable to even get their own story straight, whereas Mexican officials are quite consistent about being in the dark about the operation. This looks like an operation that advantaged some people within US security, who got to claim that they got their guy (while skipping over how that got him), as well as a PR opportunity for the US government to claim that something is being done about fentanyl availability. I’m not sure this will affect the approach to security or intelligence of the incoming Sheinbaum administration. It is hard to discern a clear security policy of the incoming (or outgoing) government. What the policy looks like will be determined more by party and electoral dynamics in Mexico.
Philip Luke Johnson 